Minister Al-X

Prelude to a Civil War

One question that I always asked my hawkish friends during the buildup to war was this: Would the war be worth it if we ended up creating another Iran-like theocracy? The answer was always "the Iraqis will never choose to be ruled by an Ayatollah."

Well, guess what, the theocrats won big in this weeks Iraqi elections, while the more secular Sunnis chose to to sit it out
The New York Times > First Iraqi Election Returns Show Commanding Lead for Shiites

Now that the shia majority has the legitimacy of a constitution and election behind it, how long will it be before an all-out civil war? I'd bet that we can avoid civil war in Iraq, the extent that it isn't already experiencing one, only so long as America keeps a strong military presence in the country.

We're going to be in Iraq for a long, long time...

posted by Anonymous @ 4:08 PM